In March 2014, Russia illegally annexed Crimea and the city of Sevastopol – a violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine – in order to have access to the Black Sea. The USA and Europe did nothing to stop the invasion. The former was still mired in Iraq and Afghanistan and Ukraine did not have status with NATO. All has been quiet in the region until a few weeks ago when aerial images located a Russian military build-up near the eastern edge of Ukraine.
A storm’s a-brewin’!
Trevor Noah of The Daily Show on Comedy Central, a show I watch on a regular basis, commented less than two weeks ago that he did not know why Russia wanted to reclaim Ukrainian land previously within the U.S.S.R. orbit. The answer is actually quite simple. First, Ukraine compares similarly to the USA’s midwestern states of Minnesota, North Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois. With fertile soil, these states grow corn, soybeans, sugar beets, and more corn. Likewise, Ukraine is also a breadbasket. Its fertile soil, arguably the best crop soil in Europe, can help Putin feed his people.
On Ukraine’s western edge sits Transistria, a narrow, unrecognized country that typically does not appear on a map. Going west, young man, you come across Moldova, which declared itself an independent country in 1991, during the changing political landscape of Mikhail Gorbachev’s policies of perestroika and glasnost. Moldovans speak Romanian or Russian or both.
Second, from a military perspective, Putin, in my opinion, will seek to secure not only a part of Ukraine, but also Transistria due to its current huge stockpile of Soviet-era small weapons, “including, AK-47s, AKMs, PKMs, Makarov Ms and SVD Dragunovs. These weapons are typically used in the main areas of conflict in the Middle East, on the African continent, and by mafias in the Schengen area,” according to (in 2015) Michael Lambert, a defense researcher for the Conference of Defense Associations (cdainstitute.ca).
As Putin suggests a reunification plan that will extend Russian territory all the way to the Black Sea, China appears to have a similar path. That is, rumblings exist that China seeks to reclaim Taiwan. Since security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region have recently grown significantly, isolated Australia inked a nuclear submarine deal with the United States with a value exceeding $60 billion dollars. In an understatement, this contract irked China.
China and the USA are profoundly at odds as they jockey for influence beyond their own shores, compete in technology, and maneuver for military advantages. And do not forget about Putin’s plans.
Skipping backward, China surprised me by failing to secure Taiwan while the USA ignorantly and blindly got itself bogged down in the Muddle East. No way could the US defend Taiwan while already spread thin. And what about the Chinese ally, North Korea?
WWJD? What will Joe do? President Biden, concede that China will become the world’s largest economic engine. I suspect China and Russia will move territorially in tandem and the USA cannot stop them. I do know that war is NOT the answer, President Biden.
A storm’s a-brewin’.
