SF Giants 2012 Mid-Season Report, By Chuck Strom

The All-Star Break is almost upon us—time for a mid-season report on the San Francisco Giants.

At 46-39, the Giants are one-game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, and if the season ended today they would be tied with the Mets for the second and final wild-card spot after losing four of their last five games. It is hard to determine whether the Giants have exceeded or disappointed expectations. If someone had told me before the season that Brian Wilson would go down with Tommy John surgery and Lincecum would develop a problem with his mechanics when pitching from the stretch and start the season 3-9, I would have figured that the Giants would have been lucky to stay at .500. That they have squeezed out seven more wins than losses while only scoring three runs more than they’ve allowed owes much to the rest of their starting pitching and a bullpen that up to the last week or two has served the Giants well in close games. The recent shakiness of the bullpen, however, particularly their substitute closer Santiago Casilla, bodes seriously ill for the Giants’ prospects in the second half of the season.

STARTING PITCHING

Who would have ever thought that Tim Lincecum would replace Barry Zito as the Giants pitcher you least wanted to see come up for his turn in the rotation? Most frustrating of all is the inability of anyone in the Giants organization, least of all Lincecum himself, to figure out a reason why. The pattern is virtually identical: plenty of strikeouts and lots of scoreless innings, but then a sudden loss of control, usually after a batter reaches base, that invariably ends with four or five runs on the board – far too many for the Giants to overcome most of the time. Two Cy Youngs and a World Series Championship have bought Lincecum a lot of forgiveness from the fans up to now, but he may well start hearing boos if he doesn’t figure out his problems soon. At the moment general manager Brian Sabean is probably thanking his good fortune that the two starters whom he locked down with long-term deals, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, are currently justifying his investments. If the Giants hand out any more such contracts, the most likely candidate might well be Ryan Vogelsong, who has shown decisively that his breakout season last year at the age of 34 was no fluke. As for Zito, the Giants are probably grateful to have gotten a 7-6 record from him to date, though his recent performances disturbingly suggest that he might be returning to the form that caused the Giants to leave him off the rotation during their 2010 championship run.

BULLPEN

When Brian Wilson went down for the season back in April, I was probably more upset in losing the entertainment he provided on and off the mound than his contributions as a closer. The Giants have had a good track record overall in finding emergency replacements for ninth-inning duties, and up until a couple of weeks ago I would have cited Santiago Casilla as evidence of such. Casilla is still among the NL leaders in saves, but his last several appearances have suggested either a deterioration of his stuff or the possibility that the league may have figured him out. Hopefully the issue is overuse, with a few days rest at the All Star Break providing the medicine needed to get him back on track.

INFIELD

So far the Giants’ fortunes here have been mixed. The good news starts with the return of Buster Posey to full health and performance, and the emergence of Hector Sanchez as a capable substitute catcher when the Giants prudently give Posey plenty of days off to avoid too much wear and tear on his surgically repaired ankle. Pablo Sandoval appears to be returning to form after breaking the hamate bone in his hand earlier in the season (same injury as last year, different hand – a problem attributed to his tendency to grip the bat with the knob in his palm). Shortstop Brandon Crawford appears to have improved his hitting barely enough to keep his glove in the field, and Ryan Theriot has performed well enough at second base to prevent the Giants from grieving too deeply at Freddy Sanchez’s failure to recover from his injuries in 2011. First baseman Aubrey Huff, on the other hand, has somehow managed to deteriorate to the point of total disappearance, where the 2010 team RBI leader is now more known for his anxiety disorders and spraining his knee during the celebration of Cain’s perfect game in June. His replacement, Brandon Belt, may be finding the batting stroke that has previously eluded him since coming up in 2011, at least so it appeared when I saw him last Sunday when he hit the ball hard every time up. If the Giants improve their offense in the second half, he will probably be the biggest contributor.

OUTFIELD

Here Brian Sabean’s off-season moves have had the greatest success, despite Carlos Beltran’s departure to the Cardinals. Giants fans should not grieve too deeply at that; if Beltran had stayed, Sabean would almost certainly not have traded erratic starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera, a move that for the time being has done much to restore Sabean’s once unblemished reputation for larceny when trading players. Nearly as successful has been his acquisition of Angel Pagan whose .290 average has been decent along with his fielding, while the player traded for him, Andres Torres, has spent much of 2012 on the disabled list. Unfortunately the Giants have had little success in finding a third outfielder to hit consistently, with Gregor Blanco appearing to be the best candidate for that spot for his glove and his speed on the bases. It should also be added that as well as Cabrera and Posey and Sandoval have performed up to this point in the season, the Giants have no true sluggers in their lineup, a situation that has them second to last in the NL in home runs and only slightly better in runs scored. Perhaps AT&T Park is truly as forbidding to power hitters as its reputation suggests, despite Barry Bonds’ five year reign as a freak of nature there from 2000 to 2004.

PROJECTION

The fortunes of teams can change in a flash during a season; an injury or a hot streak at the plate from a player or two can mean the difference between success and failure in the won-lost column, and the Giants have plenty of potential in both directions going forward. Most likely they will continue their pattern of overall good pitching but not enough offense to provide comfortable leads for the late innings. It will be up to the bullpen to nail down every close victory possible to get the Giants to October, and at the moment I’m not feeling optimistic of that prospect. Their rivals in the NL West have their problems, too, so the Giants may stay in contention well into September, with a final record similar to their 86-76 result in 2011. Probably that will not be enough in the end to reach October, but it should be enough to keep fans filling the park to capacity for the rest of the season, which if nothing else testifies to the overall success of the franchise. AT&T Park is still the place to be if you like baseball.

– Chuck Strom