Did Western states make a promise to Moscow in 1990, not long after the fall of the Berlin Wall, that if Moscow allowed for the reunification of Germany, then there would be “not one inch” of eastward expansion by NATO? Debatable. The pessimist would argue victors write history. We know NATO expanded and has made overtures about Ukraine. Ukraine has been in the news since Trumpster acolyte Paul Manafort, since jailed for his efforts, acted as an unregistered agent during the previous presidential election. Also, Putin’s people annexed Crimea in 2014. Saber-rattling arose in 2020 when Russia moved an estimated 100,000 troops to the east of Ukraine. Russian tanks, artillery, air installations, and troops are now present at multiple sites. Enter Belarus as a Russian ally.
Why is Ukraine important? First, I have heard – and only from a co-worker who was a member of the Peace Corps in Ukraine – that Ukraine is a “breadbasket” equivalent to the fields of corn, soybeans, sugar beets grown in the midwestern states of Minnesota, North Dakota, Illinois, and Iowa. Ukrainian grains can feed a lot of people! Second, the Russian gas pipeline over which Germany and Western Europe salivates is planned to traverse Ukraine en route to Germany.
What is the Putin and Pentagon Puzzle? Sweden and Finland are not NATO members, but the former recently deployed 12 (yes, 12!!!) tanks to its eastern shore as Russia flew fighter jets into Ireland’s airspace. I personally believe the Scandihoovians will not be bothered by Putin. I heard a U.S. Senator (race and gender not relevant) implore two week ago, something like,”Can you imagine being Ukraine and being surrounded by aggressive Russian forces?” The Senator did not explain that Russia is surrounded by U.S. bases. Remember the U.S. has 800 military installations worldwide, and many that encircle Russia from Poland to Germany and add Turkey, Afghanistan, Japan, South Korea, et. al. Can you imagine being Russia and being surrounded by American forces?
President Biden declared economic sanctions will be imposed if Russia invades Ukraine. Last week he stated the gas pipeline will not be completed if Russia invades. A German diplomat did not embrace Biden’s rhetoric. Very recently, the first American shipment of “security support” to the tune of at least $200 million arrived in Ukraine. I have read the aid package exceeds $500M. If the bolstered weaponry ultimately reaches its destination, might Russia retaliate with cyberattacks against American and European “soft” targets, e.g., water filtration plants, in addition to governmental operations? Since hawkish Biden publicly supported the illegal (and ill-fated) invasion of Iraq, will he pre-emptively attack during winter in Russia? How will China respond? Will North Korea enter the fray?
