Barron’s “Big Money” View of Economy and Election, by Mark Erickson

The investment potential of Tesla Motors and their stylish electric sports cars is viewed unfavorably by most fund managers.
The investment potential of Tesla Motors and their stylish electric sports cars is viewed unfavorably by 89% of fund managers.
Barron’s (Barrons.com) is a weekly newspaper devoted solely to stocks and the financial markets. My Dad passes along old issues to me. The October 17th edition contains a four page article that is based on responses Barron’s received from its “Big Money” poll about the 2017 financial market outlook and upcoming election. The article does not mention how many money managers responded to the survey, but since the article references respondents who manage funds with asset holdings of $5 billion, $360 million, and $530 million, you get the idea.

The survey asked an array of questions, most of which I will not present. Instead, I will offer up more general items. In terms of stocks we all know, 88% gave a “thumbs up” for Alphabet, 81% for Apple, 68% for Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway, 61% for Bank of America, and 60% for Facebook. The money managers were unfavorable for IBM (62%), Netflix (73%), and Tesla (89%).

Respondents thought mutual funds (51%) and ETFs (69%) had a favorable outlook whereas hedge funds (80%) had a highly negative outlook. A vast majority (84%) did not foresee a recession and only 42% gave Janet Yellen a grade above C.

Moving onto the political realm, respondents said tax reform (39%) was the most urgent priority for Congress to address with reforming entitlement programs (17%), spending on infrastructure (15%), and defeating ISIS (10%) also in the mix. I do agree tax reform is much needed, but I believe my reason is completely contrary to the Big Money managers. Given my isolationistic and pacifist tendencies, I agree that defeating ISIS is a low priority. Get out of the Muddle East and let that region sort out its problems. Caveat: the U.S. should engage in diplomatic efforts.

Finally, There were two big money questions about who they thought would win the Presidential election and who they wanted to win. Hillary will win 60/40 and while not inexplicable, 16% and 7% wanted Gary Johnson and Paul Ryan, respectively, to be President. I wonder if there is another demographic that would net 23% between these two people. Crooked Hillary and Dire Donald each netted 31%. My man, progressive socialist The Bern, did not appear in the poll results for obvious reasons.

Mark Erickson