The waiting and uncertainty are over. I know you were concerned. Would he or wouldn’t he? Would he make the easy choice “to just keep your head down, plod along, and appease those who demand: ‘Sit down and shut up,’ but that’s the worthless, easy path; that’s a quitter’s way out”… and thus choose to run for reelection, or would he make the tough choice and even leave his post using those words of the former half term Alaska Governor?
Well, as reported here in East Portland Blog, early on April 4, 2011, President Barack Obama has decided he, yes, will choose the “quitters way out” and stay in the presidency through his term and even more—wimp—run for reelection for a second term.
Now, over the next 19 months or so there will be countless buckets of bytes spilt over the presidential race of 2012: the nomination race for the Republicans, the conventions, the debates, the questioning of Obama’s reelection chances, the impact of the TEA party. But let’s stipulate this from the beginning: the strong likelihood is that President Obama will be re-elected. Oh there will be some tight moments. As some Republican becomes a clear front runner and wins the nomination, polls will be published showing her (or him?) even with, even leading President Obama. After the Republican convention in late August in Tampa (?!?), the candidate will likely surge ahead, and we can write the headlines now “A Whole New Race Develops: Many States Back in Play.” But if you are an Obama supporter you can likely keep hope alive, and if you are opponent, you may just as well start planning on how to use 2012 to set up for 2016, and if you are in the middle, you can take a vow now to Fall without TV to avoid campaign commercials, debates and the yakkers on the cable yak shows.
Now, of course anything can happen. Virginia Commonwealth University can make the Final Four, and a movie about a monarch with a speech impairment can win the Oscar for best picture, and Charlie Sheen might portray King Lear in Shakespeare in the Park this summer. And one of the best things about politics is its unpredictability, and so its claims dwell in the world of likelihoods and probabilities and never apodictic claims. Yet, while past might not always be the perfect prologue, it provides some a glimpse to limiting factors.
Consider one very simple thing: Americans prefer to re-elect their presidents. Since FDR defeated a sitting President to be elected four times (and thus re-elected 3 times), most American presidents have gained the re-election they sought: Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, G. W. Bush all re-elected; and in their own category are Truman and Johnson were re-elected to terms that began with them elected as VPs–Ford did not earn that second term, although of course he was not elected to his term as VP. This leaves two exceptions, Jimmy Carter and G.W. H. Bush, the only elected Presidents since Hoover who were defeated in their bid for a second term. So sitting in April of 2011, is Pres. Obama more like Bush Pere and Carter, or the rest of the crowd?
The most significant way in which he is not like Carter and GWHB is that Obama is very popular with in his party. Oh I know, there have been lots of carping in the blogosphere and probably the vast majority of those who supported Obama can list some disappointment, or even series of them. BUT, his approval within the party remains very high: 83% approval rating among Democrats in the most recent poll from FOX News.
This matters because one of the things that Carter and GWHB share is that they sustained serious primary challenges to their re-nominations: Teddy Kennedy to Carter and Pat Buchanan to Bush. Kennedy’s was a bruising fight with Carter in which Kennedy actually won 10 primaries and carried his fight to the floor of the Democratic convention. Buchanan, while more quixotic, and his peasants with pitchforks still won the New Hampshire primary in 1992. These two challengers revealed deep problems for the sitting presidents, showing they could not take their party’s support for granted in the general election, causing them to spend significant resources, and giving hope and tactical insight to their opponents.
Now, things could certainly still change, but at this point there is no hint of a significant challenger to President Obama. The wet nightmare/fantasy of Hilary Clinton leaving the State Department to challenge Obama will have to stay in bed. Former Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold could make some points for the left by announcing a challenge, but the likely sustained success of recently defeated Senators is low—ask Rick Santorum.
And none of this says anything of the Republicans who are challenging Obama, one of whom will have to win the nomination, although at this point most are so timid that few seem to even want to announce they are running. I will save further commentary on that group for another day, but suffice to say that they have to gain stature to meet the glories of the Seven Dwarfs.
Now, I love Presidential Campaigns, and I look forward to debates, the primaries, the conventions, the polls and their ups and downs, the commercials—ok, I don’t like bunting. But some people like the regular season of college basketball and others start watching the Oscars before the red carpet is rolled out. And sportscasters need to make a game between a powerhouse and doormat sound compelling so you will stay tuned. Of course, rare as it may seem, David can beat Goliath, but just remember, right now the skinny guy with the funny name and the full power of presidential incumbency is Goliath.
